This morning, we woke up and saw that UK’s economic growth showcased a slowdown in its third quarter. If we rewind back to the first half of 2024, with Q1 producing the strongest figures of 0.7% growth, followed by Q2 of 0.5%.
Yesterday we saw US Inflation beat expectations to rise to 2.6% in October, leaving The Federal Reserve with a debate as to whether they cut interest rates in their last meeting before Trump's presidency begins, or whether they leave rates unchanged.
Market pressure on the Euro has continued over the last 48 hours as Trump looks increasingly set to implement an America First policy around trade tariffs, which is set to sting Europe particularly hard given that they are one of America's largest trading partners.
GBP/EUR reached a 2.5 year high yesterday breaking above the 1.21 mark, 1.2103 to be exact. Recent development in Germany is causing politic uncertainty, with a vote of confidence for the running government to take place in January. This was also fuelled by planned tariffs from the US, with America being Europe’s largest trading partner. In other words, we are seeing more of EUR weakness rather than GBP and USD strength.
Last week was probably the biggest week of the year on financial markets with Trump winning the US Presidential Election, the Bank of England cutting rates by 25 bps and the Fed also cutting rates by 25 bps. The aftermath of these events has resulted in a strong Dollar, strong Pound and a weak Euro- this was also heavily contributed by the issues with Germany’s government. The BoE is now not expected to cut rates until February where as the Fed will look to cut rates again in December.
The recent UK Labour Budget introduces several tax measures that will significantly impact UK nationals. While some of these changes are still awaiting final legislation, the new provisions already hold implications for financial planning, pension withdrawals, and wealth transfer.
After an intense week of both political and economic factors causing volatility to markets. First seeing the results on Wednesday of the US election – being a driver to rally the USD against its peers. USD was up 2% atone point in a 24-hour window against the EUR. Even if its two months until the Presidential change in the US and no changes can take place yet when it comes to fiscal policies – we can still expect market effects from press conferences from Donald Trump indicating what the next steps will be for the US economy.
The Pound has continued its gains against The Euro as news this morning states that The German Government has collapsed. In recent months, the coalition government between The Social Democrats and Liberals have disagreed on many topics and have now failed to agree on the 2025 budget, as well as measures to take the country out of its current stagnation economically.
