Concerns have been raised in the last few months on how the UK economy is underperforming – which has been noticed on markets with GBP not performing as well as in the first half of 2024. This morning, we could see a glimpse of hope with UK BRC retail sales monitor indicating improving sales numbers in January.
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Last week was a volatile yet relatively predictable one, with markets digesting further tariff announcements from President Trump and the Bank of England’s 25bps interest rate cut.
There were no surprises from Bank of England’s decision of cutting interest rates yesterday by 25 basis points, now holding a base rate of 4.5%. Even if it was expected we did see motion on GBP-pairs, for example GBP/EUR fell below its psychological barrier of 1.20.
Yesterday we saw ADP Employment Change figures released in The US for January, with 183,000 extra jobs being created from previously.
Trump tariff unpredictability has led to a recovery for the Euro against the US Dollar, regaining 2% to climb above 1.04 since Monday. The currency pair had initially dropped to lows of 1.02, dragged down by fears that The US would move forward with tariffs on Mexico and Canada, as well as being touted to be followed up with The EU.
The recent development of trade tariffs has shocked the markets in the last few days, initially being pushed on Canada, Mexico and China. The most recent developments is including the Euro zone, with Trump mentioning that trade tariffs will be implemented there too.
Last week was relatively uneventful, with no surprises from the Fed, ECB, or Bank of Canada. But just as markets were settling into a steady rhythm, President Trump shook things up on Friday evening with new tariffs—25% on imports from Canada and Mexico and 10% on Chinese goods.
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